JANUARY 2023
In deciding where to rank fighters, the actual results are most important, not how I personally feel about the fighters or who I think would win hypothetical matchups. I examine head-to-head bouts first, then primarily results over the last three years, giving more credence to recent bouts. The level of competition is always considered, activity is important and MMA math only plays a small part in the process.
MEN’S POUND-FOR-POUND
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dB rankings 1. Alexander Volkanovski (C) 2. Islam Makhachev (C) 3. Leon Edwards (C) 4. Kamaru Usman 5. Alex Pereira (C) 6. Israel Adesanya 7. Charles Oliveira 8. Aljamain Sterling (C) 9. Brandon Moreno (C) +2 10. Jamahal Hill (C) * 11. Jiri Prochazka +1 12. Robert Whittaker +1 13. Deiveson Figueiredo -3 14. Dustin Poirier +1 15. Ciryl Gane * |
UFC rankings 1. Alexander Volkanovski (C) 2. Islam Makhachev (C) 3. Leon Edwards (C) 4. Kamaru Usman 5. Israel Adesanya +1 6. Alex Pereira (C) +2 7. Charles Oliveira 8. Aljamain Sterling (C) +1 9. Brandon Moreno (C) +6 10. Jiri Prochazka 11. Jon Jones +2 12. Dustin Poirier -1 13. Jamahal Hill (C) * 14. Robert Whittaker * 15. Deiveson Figueiredo -3 |
* New entrant into rankings
Out of dB/UFC rankings: Francis Ngannou (free agent), Glover Teixeira
X: I’m still stunned at the departure of Ngannou; who knew that he meant what he said about really, really wanting to box? Still, I’m not writing off a big fight with Jones down the road just yet, should the GOAT’s heavyweight debut go well against Gane come March. After flirting with the sweet science against boxers the likes of Fury, Wilder or Joshua, Ngannou may find the UFC’s offer a whole lot more appealing. And for Jones to be ranked after a three-year Octagon absence is not how these things are supposed to work; the rankings are not supposed to reflect a lifetime achievement award, but the actual merit of the fighters today.
FLYWEIGHT
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dB rankings C: Brandon Moreno 1. Deiveson Figueiredo -1 2. Alexandre Pantoja 3. Kai Kara France 4. Matheus Nicolau 5. Manel Kape 6. Brandon Royval 7. Alex Perez 8. Amir Albazi 9. Matt Schnell 10. David Dvorak 11. Tim Elliott 12. Sumudaerji 13. Tagir Ulanbekov +1 14. Muhammad Mokaev +1 15. Charles Johnson * |
UFC rankings C: Brandon Moreno 1. Deiveson Figueiredo -1 2. Alexandre Pantoja 3. Kai Kara France 4. Brandon Royal 5. Matheus Nicolau 6. Alex Perez 7. Amir Albazi 8. Matt Schnell 9. Manel Kape 10. David Dvorak 11. Tim Elliott 12. Muhammad Mokaev +2 13. Sumudaerji -1 14. Tagir Ulanbekov +1 15. Tyson Nam * |
* New entrant into rankings
Out of dB/UFC rankings: Jeff Molina (suspended)
X: While the ending to Figueiredo vs. Moreno 4 wasn’t ideal, how it got there makes Moreno the undisputed king of FLW. Naturally, Pantoja – who has beaten the Young Assassin twice – will have something to say about that in relatively short order. With his weight-cutting woes, Figueiredo going up 10 pounds to BW sounds like the right move for him; would love to see him tested at that weight by a top-10 talent like Song.
Last year’s predicted champ on Jan. 1, 2023: Moreno, who proved my hypothesis correct that he and Figueiredo can’t beat each other twice in a row. He’s as game as game gets.
This year’s predicted champ on Jan. 1, 2024: I’d love to see Moreno go on a nice run with the belt here, but quadrilogies seem to be his thing, so I’m going to say Pantoja finds a way this summer.
BANTAMWEIGHT
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dB rankings C: Aljamain Sterling 1. Marlon Vera 2. Merab Dvalishvili 3. Sean O’Malley 4. Petr Yan 5. Cory Sandhagen 6. Rob Font 7. Yadong Song 8. Ricky Simon 9. Dominick Cruz 10. Umar Nurmagomedov +1 11. Adrian Yanez -1 12. Chris Gutierrez 13. Jack Shore 14. Said Nurmagomedov 15. Pedro Munhoz |
UFC rankings C: Aljamain Sterling 1. Sean O’Malley 2. Petr Yan 3. Merab Dvalishvili 4. Marlon Vera 5. Cory Sandhagen 6. Rob Font 7. Dominick Cruz 8. Yadong Song 9. Pedro Munhoz 10. Ricky Simon 11. Umar Nurmagomedov 12. Chris Gutierrez 13. Adrian Yanez 14. Said Nurmagomedov +1 15. Jack Shore -1 |
Out of dB/UFC rankings: None
X: Not much new to report here other than fighters with the surname Nurmagomedov are still doing awesome things in the Octagon. Henry Cejudo, who has been retired for three years, will be making his long-expected comeback for the belt against Sterling, an upset pick over the popular O’Malley, who beat Yan and apparently has already called next. The Vera vs. Sandhagen scrap should be a great clash.
Last year’s predicted champ on Jan. 1, 2023: Yan, who almost did it, losing tight decisions to both Sterling and O’Malley; he’ll try to get back on track against the rugged Dvalishvili.
This year’s predicted champ on Jan. 1, 2024: If Sterling is serious about heading to FW at some point, that could make this a coin flip. But there’s something about O’Malley, so the multi-colored hair one it is.
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dB rankings C: Alexander Volkanovski 1. Max Holloway 2. Josh Emmett 3. Arnold Allen 4. Yair Rodriguez 5. Brian Ortega 6. Calvin Kattar 7. Chan Sung Jung 8. Gigi Chikadze 9. Ilia Topuria 10. Movsar Evloev 11. Bryce Mitchell 12. Sodiq Yusuff 13. Dan Ige 14. Edson Barboza 15. Jonathan Pearce |
UFC rankings C: Alexander Volkanovski 1. Max Holloway 2. Yair Rodriguez 3. Brian Ortega 4. Arnold Allen 5. Josh Emmett 6. Chan Sung Jung 7. Calvin Kattar 8. Giga Chikadze 9. Ilia Topuria 10. Movsar Evloev 11. Bryce Mitchell 12. Sodiq Yusuff 13. Dan Ige 14. Edson Barboza 15. Alex Caceres |
Out of dB/UFC rankings: None
X: The next couple of weeks will be wild, with Volkanovski moving up to fight for the LW belt and an interim belt holder at FW being crowned. Since I dislike divisions being held up, I’m not against Makhachev winning, but the fight will likely be a lot closer than many people think. Who doesn’t want to see Holloway vs. Allen this spring? Meanwhile, let’s hope Ortega and the Korean Zombie both heal fast and get back in action.
Last year’s predicted champ on Jan. 1, 2023: Holloway, who didn’t quite look like himself during his third bout with Volkanovski. But that may have more to do with Volkanovski just being that good.
This year’s predicted champ on Jan. 1, 2024: Since I believe he’s got a clear edge over either Rodriguez or Emmett, the interim opponents, the only choice is for Volkanovski to stay on top at 145 pounds.
LIGHTWEIGHT
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dB rankings C: Islam Makhachev 1. Charles Oliveira 2. Beneil Dariush 3. Dustin Poirier 4. Justin Gaethje 5. Michael Chandler 6. Rafael Fiziev 7. Mateusz Gamrot 8. Arman Tsarukyan 9. Damir Ismagulov 10. Jalin Turner 11. Dan Hooker 12. Grant Dawson 13. Renato Moicano 14. Drew Dober 15. Joel Alvarez * |
UFC rankings C: Islam Makhachev 1. Charles Oliveira 2. Dustin Poirier 3. Justin Gaethje 4. Beneil Dariush 5. Michael Chandler 6. Rafael Fiziev 7. Mateusz Gamrot 8. Arman Tsarukyan +1 9. Rafael dos Anjos -1 10. Jalin Turner 11. Dan Hooker 12. Damir Ismagulov 12. Renato Moicano 14. Drew Dober 15. Grant Dawson |
* New entrant into rankings
Out of dB rankings: Guram Kutateladze
Out of UFC rankings: None
X: Let us hope the MMA universe grants us everyone in top 10 fighting at least twice this year, because these guys are too good to be kept on ice in the prime of their careers. If Makhachev handles Volkanovski in his first title defense, he should have a legion of great names to choose from later this year. But if he loses, the division could slow to a crawl; if an interim LW title fight is necessary, Oliveira vs. Dariush sounds right.
Last year’s predicted champ on Jan. 1, 2023: Makhachev, who with Khabib Nurmagomedov in his corner seemed unbeatable. Let’s see how he fares when the Hall of Famer is watching on pay per view.
This year’s predicted champ on Jan. 1, 2024: Up first is a FW, and after that could be someone he’s already stomped, so with that in mind I’m sticking with Makhachev to be the 155-pound champion.
WELTERWEIGHT
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dB rankings C: Leon Edwards 1. Kamaru Usman 2. Belal Muhammad 3. Colby Covington 4. Khamzat Chimaev 5. Gilbert Burns 6. Shavkat Rakmonov 7. Stephen Thompson 8. Sean Brady 9. Geoff Neal 10. Vicente Luque 11. Michael Chiesa 12. Neil Magny 13. Jorge Masvidal 14. Michel Pereira 15. Jack Della Maddalena |
UFC rankings C: Leon Edwards 1. Kamaru Usman 2. Colby Covington 3. Khamzat Chimaev 4. Belal Muhammad 5. Gilbert Burns 6. Stephen Thompson 7. Geoff Neal 8. Sean Brady 9. Vicente Luque 10. Shavkat Rakmonov 11. Jorge Masvidal 12. Michael Chiesa +1 13. Neil Magny -1 14. Michel Pereira 15. Jingliang Li |
Out of dB/UFC rankings: None
X: This division could be the most interesting depending on how things shake out when Edwards and Usman meet again, whether Masvidal can win a fight (if it’s not in the street against someone like Covington) and if Chimaev will stay at 170 pounds or move up to MW, where his size seems to be taking him. Muhammad and Burns aren’t going anywhere, and Rakmonov seems ripe to make a move up, so stay tuned.
Last year’s predicted champ on Jan. 1, 2023: Usman, who for four-and-a-half rounds was doing just fine. Then Edwards kicked him in the head, and here we are.
This year’s predicted champ on Jan. 1, 2024: This isn’t an easy call because we can’t know for certain who the UFC likes as the top contenders. But since he can’t be beat at this weight, I’m going with Chimaev.
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dB rankings C: Alex Pereira 1. Israel Adesanya 2. Robert Whittaker 3. Jared Cannonier 4. Marvin Vettori 5. Paulo Costa 6. Derek Brunson 7. Sean Strickland 8. Andre Muniz 9. Roman Dolidze 10. Jack Hermansson 11. Dricus Du Plessis 12. Nassourdine Imavov 13. Chris Curtis 14. Darren Till 15. Kelvin Gastelum |
UFC rankings C: Alex Pereira 1. Israel Adesanya 2. Robert Whittaker 3. Jared Cannonier 4. Marvin Vettori 5. Derek Brunson 6. Paulo Costa 7. Sean Strickland 8. Roman Dolidze 9. Jack Hermansson 10. Dricus Du Plessis 11. Andre Muniz 12. Nassourdine Imavov 13. Kelvin Gastelum 14. Chris Curtis 15. Darren Till |
Out of dB/UFC rankings: None
X: With Pereira vs. Adesanya 4 booked for April, it won’t be long until we know the direction the division is headed. Fighters who have lost to Adesanya, like Whitaker, have to be hoping Pereira will keep the belt.
Last year’s predicted champ on Jan. 1, 2023: Adesanya, who for four-and-a-half rounds was doing just fine. Then Pereira punched him in the head, and here we are.
This year’s predicted champ on Jan. 1, 2024: Based on the logjam at the top of the division, the Aussie might be the next title defense no matter who wins. So for kicks and giggles, I pick Whitaker to take it.
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dB rankings C: Jamahal Hill +10 1. Jiri Prochazka 2. Glover Teixeira 3. Magomed Ankalaev 4. Jan Blachowicz 5. Aleksandar Rakic 6. Anthony Smith 7. Nikita Krylov 8. Volkan Oezdemir 9. Johnny Walker +2 10. Ryan Spann +2 11. Paul Craig -2 12. Azamat Murakanov +1 13. Khalil Rountree Jr. +1 14. Dustin Jacoby +1 15. Jimmy Crute * |
UFC rankings C: Jamahal Hill +7 1. Jiri Prochazka 2. Magomed Ankalaev +1 3. Jan Blachowicz +1 4. Aleksandar Rakic +1 5. Glover Teixeira -3 6. Anthony Smith 7. Nikita Krylov +1 8. Johnny Walker +4 9. Volkan Oezdemir +1 10. Ryan Spann +1 11. Paul Craig -2 12. Dominick Reyes +1 13. Jimmy Crute +1 14. Khalil Rountree Jr. +1 15. Dustin Jacoby * |
* New entrant into rankings
Out of dB/UFC rankings: None
X: Hill took Teixeira to school last month, with shocking results; I hated to see Teixeira and Shogun Run, two of the all-time great guys as well as great fighters, go out this way. But it does set up a litany of exciting matchups for 2023, depending on how fast Prochazka’s badly damaged shoulder heals, when Rakic returns from injury, and if Ankalaev and Blachowicz are forced to run back their majority draw from December.
Last year’s predicted champ on Jan. 1, 2023: Prochazka, who never lost. That’s a hint.
This year’s predicted champ on Jan. 1, 2024: Prochazka, because his style is incredibly fun to watch, his Samurai personality is appealing, we know he’ll get a shot at the belt and he’s the best at 205 pounds.
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dB rankings C: Vacant 1. Ciryl Gane 2. Curtis Blaydes 3. Sergei Pavlovich 4. Stipe Miocic 5. Tai Tuivasa 6. Tom Aspinall 7. Derrick Lewis 8. Alexander Volkov 9. Jairzinho Rozenstruik 10. Marcin Tybura 11. Alexandr Romanov 12. Serghei Spivac 13. Jailton Almeida +2 14. Blagoy Ivanov -1 15. Marcos Rogerio de Lima -1 |
UFC rankings C: Vacant 1. Ciryl Gane 2. Stipe Miocic 3. Sergei Pavlovich 4. Curtis Blaydes 5. Tai Tuivasa 6. Tom Aspinall 7. Derrick Lewis 8. Alexander Volkov 9. Jairzinho Rozenstruik 10. Marcin Tybura 11. Chris Daukaus 12. Serghei Spivac 13. Alexandr Romanov 14. Jailton Almeida * 15. Blagoy Ivanov |
* New entrant into rankings
Out of dB rankings: Francis Ngannou (free agent)
Out of UFC rankings: Francis Ngannou (free agent), Shamil Abdurakhimov
X: Almeida backed up my faith in him by dominating Abdurakhimov; even being a bit undersized at HW, he has all the tools to be in the top 10 before the end of the year. Gane vs. Jones is an intriguing style matchup between the most athletic men in this weight class. And since I’m not quite ready to see Lewis give up his spot as the best post-fight interview, here’s hoping he finds his best form this weekend against Spivac.
Last year’s predicted champ on Jan. 1, 2023: Ngannou, who never lost. You know the rest.
This year’s predicted champ on Jan. 1, 2024: I want to say Gane, but he was outwrestled by Ngannou of all people. That leaves me little choice but to pick Jones, who I would favor over Miocic as well.
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dB rankings 1. Amanda Nunes (C) 2. Valentina Shevchenko (C) 3. Rose Namajunas 4. Weili Zhang 5. Jessica Andrade +1 6. Julianna Pena -1 7. Amanda Lemos 8. Taila Santos 9. Manon Fiorot 10. Carla Esparza 11. Marina Rodriquez 12. Raquel Pennington * 13. Katlyn Chookagian -1 14. Lauren Murphy -1 15. Ketlen Viera -1 |
UFC rankings 1. Amanda Nunes (C) 2. Valentina Shevchenko (C) 3. Weili Zhang (C) 4. Julianna Pena 5. Rose Namajunas 6. Carla Esparza 7. Jessica Andrade 8. Marina Rodriquez 9. Taila Santos +3 9. Amanda Lemos 11. Manon Fiorot +2 12. Holly Holm -2 13. Raquel Pennington * 14. Katlyn Chookagian 15. Ketlen Viera -4 |
* New entrant into rankings
Out of dB rankings: Holly Holm
Out of UFC rankings: Xiaonan Yan
X: After wiping out Murphy, Andrade has become such a monster that she could earn title shots in two divisions this year; I give her a better chance today against Zhang as opposed to a Shevchenko rematch. There are still too many unknowns in the careers of champions Namajunas, Nunes, Esparza and Holm.
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dB rankings C: Weili Zhang 1. Jessica Andrade +2 2. Amanda Lemos -1 3. Rose Namajunas -1 4. Carla Esparza 5. Marina Rodriguez 6. Xiaonan Yan 7. Amanda Ribas 8. Mackenzie Dern 9. Virna Jandiroba 10. Tecia Torres 11. Michelle Waterson-Gomez 12. Luana Pinheiro 13. Angela Hill 14. Kanaoko Murata 15. Emily Ducote |
UFC rankings C: Zhang Weili 1. Carla Esparza 2. Rose Namajunas 3. Amanda Lemos 4. Marina Rodriguez +1 5. Yan Xiaonan +1 6. Jessica Andrade -2 7. Mackenzie Dern 8. Tecia Torres 9. Amanda Ribas 10. Virna Jandiroba 11. Michelle Waterson-Gomez 12. Angela Hill 13. Luana Pinheiro 14. Emily Ducote 15. Polyana Viana |
Out of dB/UFC rankings: None
X: Not sure why Weili vs. Lemos hasn’t been booked, as that’s a fun fight that should also show just how much better Weili is than most of her competition. An Andrade rematch feels like it would be more compelling than a Rodriguez title defense, and Namajunas is quiet on a potential move up to 125 pounds.
Last year’s predicted champ on Jan. 1, 2023: Namajunas, who proceeded to lose one of the worst championship fights of all time vs. Esparza and has been out of the Octagon since then.
This year’s predicted champ on Jan. 1, 2024: Even though she has lost twice to Namajunas, it sure looks like Weili has reached her finest form, retiring Joanna Jędrzejczyk and running over Esparza.
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dB rankings C: Valentina Shevchenko 1. Talia Santos 2. Jessica Andrade +1 3. Manon Fiorot -1 4. Katlyn Chookagian 5. Alexa Grasso +1 6. Lauren Murphy -1 7. Jennifer Maia 8. Viviane Araujo 9. Casey O’Neill 10. Andrea Lee 11. Tracy Cortez 12. Erin Blanchfield 13. Maycee Barber 14. Miranda Maverick 15. Maryna Moroz |
UFC rankings C: Valentina Shevchenko 1. Manon Fiorot 2. Talia Santos 3. Jessica Andrade +3 4. Katlyn Chookagian -1 5. Alexa Grasso 6. Lauren Murphy -2 7. Viviane Araujo 8. Jennifer Maia 9. Andrea Lee 10. Erin Blanchfield 11. Casey O’Neill 12. Maycee Barber 13. Tracy Cortez 14. Cynthia Calvillo 15. Amanda Ribas |
Out of dB/UFC rankings: None
X: Good luck to Grasso, who received a shot at Shevchenko with Floret injured. With another win, Santos could earn a rematch for the belt. And the Andrade wrecking ball is always in the title picture.
Last year’s predicted champ on Jan. 1, 2023: Shevchenko, who didn’t quite look like her previously dominating self during her last time out against Santos.
This year’s predicted champ on Jan. 1, 2024: Shevchenko, who even when she wasn’t herself still found a way to win. The female James Bond can still improve.
WOMEN’S BANTAMWEIGHT
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dB rankings C: Amanda Nunes 1. Julianna Pena 2. Raquel Pennington +2 3. Ketlen Vieira -1 4. Holly Holm -1 5. Irene Aldana 6. Karol Rosa 7. Pannie Kianzad 8. Yana Kunitskaya 9. Macy Chiasson 10. Julia Avila 11. Mayra Bueno Silva 12. Josiane Nunes 13. Stephanie Egger 14. Lina Lansberg 15. Miesha Tate |
UFC rankings C. Amanda Nunes 1. Julianna Pena 2. Raquel Pennington +3 3. Holly Holm 4. Ketlen Vieira -2 5. Irene Aldana -1 6. Yana Kunitskaya 7. Pannie Kianzad 8. Macy Chiasson 9. Karol Rosa 10. Miesha Tate 11. Julia Avila 12. Lina Lansberg 13. Norma Dumont 14. Mayra Bueno Silva 15. Josiane Nunes |
Out of dB/UFC rankings: None
X: Pennington continued to show just how tough she is with a victory over Vieira; her upcoming fight against Aldana likely should land the winner a title shot. With that fight being booked, a Nunes vs. Pena rematch feels somewhat inevitable for the BW belt. The Holm vs. Kunitskaya scrap will keep one of them relevant.
Last year’s predicted champ on Jan. 1, 2023: Pena, who proceeded get punished for five rounds in her rematch with a newly inspired Nunes. Self-belief can only take you so far.
This year’s predicted champ on Jan. 1, 2024: Who else but Nunes even deserves a vote? It’s possible Pena could win a rematch and Aldana is tough, but she owns this division.
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C: Amanda Nunes No divisional rankings. |
Last year’s predicted champ on Jan. 1, 2023: Nobody, which says a lot.
This year’s predicted champ on Jan. 1, 2024: The end of the division – for now anyway.
UPCOMING FIGHTS TO WATCH
Feb. 4 – UFC Fight Night 218
Derrick Lewis vs. Serghei Spivac
Marcin Tybura vs. Blagoy Ivanov
Dooho Choi vs. Kyle Nelson
Feb. 11 – UFC 283
Islam Makhachev vs. Alexander Volkanovski for LW title
Josh Emmett vs. Yair Rodriguez for interim FW title
Jack Della Maddalena vs. Randy Brown
Feb. 18 – UFC Fight Night 219
Marlon Vera vs. Cory Sandhagen
Talia Santos vs. Erin Blanchfield
Lina Lansberg vs. Mayra Bueno Silva
Feb. 25 – UFC Fight Night 220
Nikita Krylov vs. Ryan Spann
Trevor Peek vs. Alex Reyes
Andre Muniz vs. Brendan Allen
Updated rankings for February will be posted before UFC Fight Night 284 on March 4, when Jon Jones makes his long-awaited return at the highest weight class. Until then, enjoy the 5-ounce glove fights.
For comments, questions and suggestions, email dbrown@cherokeescout.com or hit me up on Twitter @daviddbstroh.