by Jim Blasingame
If you had to use one word to describe technology, it would be “crisis” the way the Chinese think of it, which they spell by compounding two words: Danger and opportunity.
How qualified am I to make this analogy? Well, I’ve been on a computer since 1974, owned a PC in 1979, then one of the first Macintosh’s in 1984, was on Compuserve before the Internet, built my first website in ’97, and was simulcasting my radio program on the Internet in 1998. And with every step, I experienced danger and opportunity which turned into both failure and success. So, consider all of that when I tell you there’s a technology that’s likely to create a level of disruption, unlike anything we’ve seen.
Since the advent of the Digital Age – let’s say, the 1950s – the number of business model disruptions brought on by new technology has been unprecedented in human history. Legacy paradigms – complete with red-letter rules and legendary success stories – have shifted dangerously for multi-generational industries. Think Kodak. Other examples include email’s impact on fax machines and the letter/parcel delivery industry; Airbnb disrupting the hospitality industry without owning any real estate; and don’t ask a cabby about Uber unless you want to hear cursing.
There’s one thing all these disruptions have in common: The most breathtakingly-fast shifts of the past have been on a level that I call “next-step understanding.” Previously, when an innovation disrupted and possibly even surprised us, what we saw happening was next-step understandable. As dramatic as any innovation may have been – personal computer, Internet, e-commerce, social media, etc. – we took it in stride because it was a single unit of variation above where we were operating.
But, now it’s time to buckle up and pull tighter. What’s coming at you won’t be next-step – it will require what I call “quantum-leap understanding.” A quantum leap is one that in a single bound, clears at least two former steps. Understanding this next disruption won’t be like taking a course in Spanish or French. It will be more like learning Klingon. The applications of blockchain are, and will be, a quantum leap.
Almost maddening at first, it will seem like you’re passing through a wormhole into another dimension. Tech writer Adam Greenfield said this about Blockchain: “This is the first technology I’ve encountered that’s difficult for even the most intelligent and highly capable people to understand.”
The application of blockchain is to identify, record, secure, and distribute in digital form something of value – like a cryptocurrency or a contract – to a network of distributed ledgers on computers across the Internet. And the value is in that exact form being locked securely and immutably onto a dozen, a thousand, or a million of those digital ledgers. And the only way to use or alter that asset is with a digital key that is immediately recognized and accepted by every one of those ledgers.
Satoshi Nakamoto (the name attributed to Bitcoin’s inventor) wanted to create a peer-to-peer cryptocurrency. But to accomplish his goal of making Bitcoin immutable (read: trustable), for reasons you’ll learn later, he perfected the foundational technology we know today as blockchain.
While Bitcoin can’t exist without blockchain, the technology can and is being employed separately from the currency. But blockchain and the distributed ledger network are completely symbiotic – they require each other to exist. And just as there are many different cryptocurrencies, there are also blockchain variations. Going forward, I’ll use blockchain as a term for all variations. Also, I’ll treat Blockchain as a proper noun, as we do the Internet.
Quantum Leap Warning: Beyond cryptocurrency, Blockchain and associated applications will ultimately shift virtually every business paradigm you know and love. Futurist Joel Barker taught us that when a paradigm shifts, everything goes back to zero. Those who don’t make the Blockchain leap as it morphs into marketplace ubiquity will find themselves in the irrelevance lane, holding a shrinking goose egg.
As our digital super-highway system, the Internet is a de facto utility. But to make it useful, inventors created World Wide Web tools, including email, HTML, and innumerable other applications. So, when you think of Blockchain’s place in the universe, imagine it as the next utility-type technology platform upon which we’ll mount new applications, and then leverage them over the Internet. But remember, where the Internet was next-step, Blockchain will be quantum leap.
A few examples of how Blockchain will be used as a platform include delivering and securing cryptocurrencies; establishing and fulfilling contracts, from tiny consumer purchases to global trade agreements; authenticating ownership of things like your car, house, and investment portfolio; paying – or receiving payment – for work, a book or a song. Today, it’s being used to track the provenance of your Romaine lettuce.
Here’s some Blockchain chronological perspective. Commercial/public use of the Internet happened between 1991-1993. Even if you were around during that period, you probably didn’t become fully “online” functional until later in the decade. I mark where we are today with the introduction and adoption of Blockchain as the Internet equivalent of 1995. That was the year after Amazon was founded and at least two before you heard of it.
By definition, a “killer app” is at once handy and disruptive. And as handy and disruptive as the mother-of-all killer apps, the Internet, has been, Blockchain will be quantum-leap disruptive for everyone, but handy only for those who can make the quantum leap.
In most cases, it took a decade or more for the Internet to have a dramatic and ubiquitous impact. I wouldn’t count on having that long to become fluent in the language of Blockchain applications.
Quantum Leap Warning: In three or five years, where will you and your business model be found along Blockchain’s handy/disruptive continuum?
Write this on a rock … You’re not late to Blockchain, but you’re about to be. Remember my warning about quantum leap understanding? This time really is different. Buckle up.
JIM BLASINGAME is one of the world's foremost thought-leaders on business and entrepreneurship. Jim is a marketplace futurist helping businesses anticipate what’s coming at them over the horizon. And he helps them get out of their own way. Jim’s last two books have won multiple international awards: The 3rd Ingredient -- the Journey of Analog Ethics into the World of Digital Fear and Greed and The Age of the Customer – Prepare for the Moment of Relevance. http://www.jimblasingame.com/